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Oil price reduces irresistibility demand depressed airline loss is become finali
From;    Author:Stand originally

National hair changes appoint with bureau of Chinese civil aviation (Civil Aviation Administration Of China, the following abbreviation " civil aviation bureau " ) issue an announcement jointly, since October 1, domestic boat fat retail price reduces 570 yuan / ton reach 8150 yuan / ton, next amplitude modulation are 6.5% , but still be only for this depressed to demand aviation industry " an utterly inadequate method in dealing with a severe situation " .

Reduce a part this to purchase cost integratedly for boat oil, from 870 yuan / ton reduce reach 300 yuan / ton, reduce the forehead to spend ask for range is the biggest since purchasing cost integratedly to left 2006. Case of domestic boat oil price divides composition by 3, namely oily company of boat fat factory price, ship is entered annul purchase cost price difference, integratedly. Purchase cost integratedly normally every quarter is adjusted. Be being adjusted last time is on July 1, from 150 yuan / ton on tone reachs 870 yuan / ton. Purchase cost integratedly to depend on on the oil of general commerce boat that oil price of domestic and international first quarter boat needs oily company of the ship in mixing imports an amount.

Ma Xiaoli of analyst of letter negotiable securities thinks in, of the fourth quarter purchasing cost integratedly to reduce is inevitable. From this year on June 20, 1500 yuan are moved on factory price of check of domestic boat oil price / ton hind, oil price of domestic and international boat differs the 3rd quarter relatively the 2nd quarter dropped 57.9% . In the meantime, entrance of oil of general commerce boat measures the 3rd quarter also relatively the 2nd quarter drops somewhat.

Because the international market worries about American banking crisis to bring about global economy to put delay, the month on international crude price tumbles for a time split 100 dollars / the bucket closes greatly, after this issues wave motion on this col all the time.

Ma Xiaoli predicts, if international crude price continues to keep low, in domestic boat oil the circumstance with changeless factory price falls, future purchases cost integratedly may be reduced further, to in January 2009, 300 yuan / ton purchase cost integratedly to cancel entirely likely.

Calculate according to him, after this oil price is reduced, oily cost of a few big airline boat all will managing on 100 million yuan, the Inc. of Chinese southern aviation that gives priority to with domestic line among them (Shanghai bourse code: 600029, code of Hong Kong bourse: 01055; Na Hang says below) be benefited quite much, its boat oily defray will drop 279 million yuan. Suffer oil price to reduce message effect, aviation rebound two days continuously.

Nevertheless, since this year, the amplitude modulation on accumulative total of domestic boat fat retail price already was amounted to 27.9% . If the four seasons spends case of domestic boat oil price,maintain at present level, criterion average price rises annual compared to the same period extent will be achieved 25.7% , outclass 2.3% 2007.
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